FORECASTING SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE HOTEL AND RESTAURANT ENTERPRISE ON THE BASIS OF ASSESSMENT OF ITS PRODUCTION POTENTIAL
Abstract
The article is devoted to the procedure of estimation and forecasting of differentiated influence of resources consumption factors on improving the efficiency of production and commercial activity and sustainable development of the hotel and restaurant business enterprise on the basis of indicators of economic growth and reserve development. The article determines the economic development indicators of the subjects of the hotel and restaurant business and analyzes the influence of factors of production costs on the increase of efficiency and sustainable development of the enterprise on the basis of the existing production potential. The methodological toolkit of research of patterns of interaction of factors of production, estimation of their quantitative mutual influence and reserves of development, made stochastic methods of correlation-regression analysis, mathematical statistics and developed by them using the model of multiple regression and indicators of economic growth and sustainable development. The study established the degree of differential impact of resource consumption factors on the performance indicator by calculating their individual elasticity coefficients or economic growth indicators, which show the level of change of the criterion parameter under the influence of factor value growth by 1%, using the indicator of reserve economic development yield levels, which change due to the use of identified reserves of resource potentials. This indicator, in addition to the degree of impact of resource consumption, takes into account the specific weight of an individual factor in their totality, and determines the force of its effect on the indicator of the efficiency of the enterprise at constant (static) flow of the economic process, which develops uniformly (linearly) over time. By determining the estimation and forecast indices of the reserve development of the resource potential of production, it is proved that the greatest contribution to improving the efficiency of activity, and, consequently, to ensuring the sustainable development of the subject of the hotel and restaurant economy, contributes to the labor cost factor, which also has the highest reserve potential in addition, material resource inefficiencies were identified. The proposed methodological approach to the estimation of production potential and forecasting the efficiency of resource consumption and the results of the activity of the hotel and restaurant business provides the opportunity to formulate a strategy and model for managing its sustainable economic growth and development.
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