THE DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD TRADE IN RAW MATERIALS ON THE EXAMPLE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Abstract
The article is devoted to the analysis of modern trends in the development global trade in raw materials on the example of trade in agricultural products. The example of European countries proves that the rational use of national wealth for the creation of an innovative raw material industry leads to increased competitiveness in the world market. The dynamics of volumes of world commodity production and export in 2011-2017 has been analyzed; the world export of agricultural products, averaged over this period, shows more positive dynamics of development in comparison with industrial and energy sectors. Agricultural products maintain a leading position as the most sustainable sector of worldwide trade, even despite the forecasted negative dynamics of price parameters for its key commodity products. In medium-term strategy, this fact matters for investment planning and the organizing of export of agricultural products. The dynamics of the nominal and real value of the FAO food price index for 1999-2018 and the changes in FAO world prices indexes by main product groups in 2000-2018 were analyzed. In the second decade of the XXI century, the dynamics of global trade and agrarian produce trafficking have remained rather unstable. This instability is caused by a number of reasons, such as fluctuations in production due to the significant dependence of this sector on weather and climate conditions, and changes in demand due to economic reasons. However, the tendencies in world food price indexes can be seen as a reliable indicator of the global economy, especially at the turning points between different trends, due to their rather weak volatility and relative stability in times of crises. The obtained results testify to the presence of steady and sustainable development of agriculture worldwide, the dynamics of which in crisis periods show significantly less noticeable wave trends in the volume of production and exports compared with other branches - e.g. in 2000-2018, the sector maintained a positive growth dynamic, as well significant growth rates of exports. Global trade in agricultural products is subject to significantly more dynamic trends than the production sector; therefore, agricultural exports are one of the most sustainable elements of worldwide trade.
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