ENSURING THE STATE'S DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN CURRENT CONDITIONS

Keywords: debt security, budget security, crisis, threats, war

Abstract

The paper aimed at researching the state's debt sustainability, assessing its condition and developing ways to improve it in current conditions characterized by a significant level of uncertainty and risk. The study emphasizes that the state's debt sustainability largely depends on the level of its debt and budget security. Emphasis was placed on the necessity and importance of ensuring the debt sustainability of the state in the modern conditions of uncertainty and risk caused by the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and the global economic recession. Such threats significantly affect the lowering of the country's debt sustainability level and contribute to the formation of serious threats to national security. Moreover, Ukraine had a significant amount of public debt before the start of armed aggression, and after the start of the active phase of the war, this level only increased at a very fast pace which is a significant threat to the financial and national security of Ukraine. Accordingly, the assessment of the state's debt sustainability level will allow for an assessment of the main threats to the country in the future. Therefore, it was proposed to carry out an analysis of the state's debt sustainability by assessing the state of debt and budget security. The expediency of using the selected methodology for calculating debt and budget security indicators is substantiated. This technique involves the calculation of individual indicators and the overall indicator of budget security and the calculation of individual indicators and the overall indicator of debt security. As a result of the use of this methodology, an assessment of the state of the state's budget security and state debt security was made. Corresponding conclusions have been made, which provide for the identification of the main threats to ensure the budgetary and debt security of the state. Based on the results of the analysis, the paper developed proposals to strengthen the state's debt and budget security, which will contribute to ensuring its debt sustainability in current conditions characterized by a significant level of uncertainty and risk.

References

Ericsson, N. R. How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt? International Journal of Forecasting. 2017 33(2), 543– 559. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.09.001

Hobela, V. (2020) Economy offshoring in the national economic security. Scientific Horizons, 23(12), 109 – 120. https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor.23(12).2020.109-120

Hobela, V., Podra, O., Batyuk, B., Levkiv, H., & Hynda, O. (2022). The Ukrainian economy offshoring: estimation of factors’ impact and developing measures to combat. Business: Theory and Practice, 23(2), 347–356. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2022.14509

Joy, J., & Panda, P. K. (2020). An empirical analysis of sustainability of public debt among BRICS nations. Journal of Public Affairs, e2170. doi:10.1002/pa.2170

Гобела В. В., Мельник С. І. Offshoring as a Threat to the National Economic Security: Causes and Ways to Counteract. Науковий вісник Мукачівського державного університету. Серія «Економіка». 2021. Том 8, № 2. С. 9-16. https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ.8(2).2021.9-16

Єфименко Т. І. Система управління державними фінансами України: проблеми економічної безпеки. Економіка України. 2018. № 11-12. С. 28–46.

Карапетян О. М., Андрєєва К. О. Дотримання фінансової безпеки держави в умовах асиметричності структури державного боргу та фінансових ризиків. Ефективна економіка. 2019. № 2. С. 6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105-2019.2.44

Котіна Г., Степура М., Кондро П. Боргова безпека України: оцінка, ризики та перспективи. Схід. 2017 3. С. 10-15.

Кулінська А.В. Бюджетна безпека як умова досягнення національних соціально-економічних інтересів. Інвестиції: практика та досвід. 2016. 4. С. 29– 34.

Мелих О. Ю. Державний кредит і сучасний стан державного боргу України. Ефективна економіка. 2019. № 12. URL: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=7509 (дата звернення: 10.2022)

Міністерство фінансів України – веб-сайт. URL: http://minfin.gov.ua

Ericsson, N. R. (2017) How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt? International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 33(2), pp. 543– 559. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.09.001

Hobela, V. (2020) Economy offshoring in the national economic security. Scientific Horizons, vol. 23(12), pp. 109–120. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor.23(12).2020.109-120

Hobela, V., Podra, O., Batyuk, B., Levkiv, H., & Hynda, O. (2022). The Ukrainian economy offshoring: estimation of factors’ impact and developing measures to combat. Business: Theory and Practice, vol. 23(2), pp. 347–356. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2022.14509

Joy, J., & Panda, P. K. (2020). An empirical analysis of sustainability of public debt among BRICS nations. Journal of Public Affairs, e2170. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2170

Hobela V., Melnyk S. (2021). Offshoring as a Threat to the National Economic Security: Causes and Ways to Counteract [Offshoring as a Threat to the National Economic Security: Causes and Ways to Counteract]. Naukovyi visnyk Mukachivskoho derzhavnoho universytetu. Seriia «Ekonomika», 8, no. 2, p. 9-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ.8(2).2021.9-16

Yefymenko T. I. (2018). State finance management system of Ukraine: problems of economic security. [Systema upravlinnia derzhavnymy finansamy Ukrainy: problemy ekonomichnoi bezpeky]. Ekonomika Ukrainy, no. 11-12, p. 28–46.

Karapetian O. M., Andrieieva K. O. (2019). Compliance with the financial security of the state in conditions of asymmetric structure of the state debt and financial risks. [Dotrymannia finansovoi bezpeky derzhavy v umovakh asymetrychnosti struktury derzhavnoho borhu ta finansovykh ryzykiv]. Efektyvna ekonomika, no. 2, p. 6.

Kotina H., Stepura M., Kondro P. (2017). Debt security of Ukraine: assessment, risks and prospects. [Borhova bezpeka Ukrainy: otsinka, ryzyky ta perspektyvy]. Skhid, no. 3. p. 10-15.

Kulinska A.V. (2016). Budget security as a condition for achieving national socio-economic interests. [Biudzhetna bezpeka yak umova dosiahnennia natsionalnykh sotsialno-ekonomichnykh interesiv]. Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid, no. 4. p. 29– 34.

Melykh O. Yu. (2019). State credit and the current state of the state debt of Ukraine. [Derzhavnyi kredyt i suchasnyi stan derzhavnoho borhu Ukrainy]. Efficient economy, no. 12. Available at: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=7509

Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy [Ministry of Finance of Ukraine]. Available at: http://minfin.gov.ua

Article views: 87
PDF Downloads: 99
Published
2022-06-22
How to Cite
Hobela, V., Leskiv, H., & Flyak, V. (2022). ENSURING THE STATE’S DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN CURRENT CONDITIONS. Economic Scope, (181), 192-196. https://doi.org/10.32782/2224-6282/181-34
Section
MONEY, FINANCES AND CREDIT